On Sunday, October 26, 2025, Javier Gerardo Milei didn’t just win—he rewrote Argentina’s political map. His libertarian party, La Libertad Avanza, crushed the Peronist opposition with 41.0% of the national vote in the country’s midterm legislative elections, a 9.0-point lead over Union for the Homeland (32.0%). The results, certified by the Supreme Court of Argentina the next day at 14:00 UTC-3, transformed Milei from a president struggling to govern with a hostile congress into the most powerful executive in Argentina since the 1990s. And it happened not just in the capital, but in the heart of Peronist power: the Province of Buenos Aires.
From Deficit to Dominance: The Buenos Aires Miracle
Seven weeks earlier, on September 7, 2025, LLA trailed Peronists in the Province of Buenos Aires—a region housing 38% of Argentina’s voters—by 14.0 percentage points. It was a crushing blow, seen as proof that Milei’s radical economic message had failed to penetrate the country’s most populous and politically entrenched stronghold. But on October 26, the tide flipped. LLA eked out a 0.5-point lead. Not by accident. Not by luck. By a groundswell of frustration that swept through middle-class suburbs, industrial towns, and even working-class neighborhoods where inflation had devoured salaries and public services collapsed. "People didn’t vote for Milei because they liked him," said María Delgado, a 42-year-old teacher from La Plata. "They voted against the system. And he promised to burn it down." The shift was seismic. Pre-election polls by Pollster Argentina had underestimated LLA’s support by an average of 4.2 points. That’s not a margin of error—it’s a failure of perception. The media, analysts, and even opposition strategists assumed the Peronists’ institutional machine would hold. Instead, Milei’s message—dollarization, slashing ministries, quitting Mercosur—resonated with voters who’d had enough of decades of economic chaos.A Congress Transformed
Before October 26, La Libertad Avanza held just 14.3% of the Chamber of Deputies and 8.3% of the Senate. After the vote? They now control 52.1% of the lower house and 45.8% of the upper chamber. That’s not a majority, but it’s more than enough to pass budgets, approve reforms, and block opposition initiatives. With 16 of 24 provinces won, Milei’s coalition has the votes to push through his signature agenda: reducing the government from 18 ministries to 8, eliminating currency controls, and replacing the peso with the U.S. dollar. At 21:30 UTC-3, standing before a roaring crowd outside LLA’s headquarters on Calle Rivadavia in Buenos Aires City, Milei declared: "Today begins the path to building a great Argentina." He added, with quiet intensity: "This is the most reformist Congress in Argentine history." The crowd chanted back: "Milei, darling, the people are with you!" It was a moment that felt more like a revolution than an election.The Mandate Reaffirmed
The 2023 presidential election was narrow—Milei beat Sergio Tomás Massa by 11 points—but it was also chaotic. Many questioned whether his victory was a protest vote, not a mandate. The October 26 results answered that. Turnout was 78.4%, nearly identical to 2023’s 79.2%, proving this wasn’t apathy—it was engagement. And voters didn’t just back Milei’s economic ideas. They endorsed his entire anti-establishment project. Former President Mauricio Macri, who endorsed Milei in 2023, called the result "the voice of young people and the fatigue of millions of neglected people." Even Alberto Ángel Fernández, Milei’s predecessor, had conceded gracefully in 2023: "I am a man of democracy, and I value nothing more than the popular verdict." Now, Fernández’s words feel prophetic. The electorate didn’t just reject Peronism. They rejected the entire post-2001 consensus.What Happens Now?
The newly elected legislators will be sworn in on December 10, 2025—the same day Milei’s presidential term officially begins its second half. The clock is ticking. Milei’s team has already signaled they’ll move fast: draft legislation on dollarization could arrive by January. But challenges loom. The Senate isn’t fully under LLA’s control. Provincial governors, many still Peronist, could resist federal mandates. And the central bank? It’s hemorrhaging reserves. If inflation spikes again before dollarization takes hold, public patience could vanish. The opposition is reeling. Sergio Tomás Massa, who lost the presidency and now appears to have retired from politics, left no successor. The Peronist coalition is fractured, its leadership aging. Without a clear new voice, their 79-year reign may be ending—not with a bang, but a whisper.Why This Matters Beyond Argentina
This isn’t just an Argentine story. It’s a global signal. In Latin America, voters have swung left for over a decade—from Lula in Brazil to Boric in Chile. But Argentina’s election proves that when economies collapse, when inflation hits 200%, when youth unemployment soars, voters don’t just want change. They want radicalism. Milei’s win echoes the rise of populist leaders from Europe to the U.S., but with a uniquely Argentine twist: a fusion of libertarian economics and performative outrage that speaks directly to a generation raised on instability. The world watched as Venezuela collapsed. Brazil flirted with chaos. Now, Argentina has chosen its path. And if Milei succeeds, he’ll become the blueprint for other debt-ridden nations. If he fails? He’ll be the cautionary tale.Frequently Asked Questions
How did La Libertad Avanza win in Buenos Aires after losing by 14 points just weeks earlier?
The shift was fueled by a last-minute surge in suburban and middle-class voters who blamed the Peronist provincial government for rising crime, crumbling schools, and inflation that outpaced wage growth. Milei’s team ran hyper-local ads targeting specific neighborhoods, using social media influencers and WhatsApp networks to bypass traditional media. The result? A 13.5-point swing in key districts like La Matanza and San Miguel, where LLA flipped 200,000 votes in 19 days.
What does Milei’s control of Congress mean for Argentina’s economy?
Milei can now push through his plan to dollarize the peso, cut 10 ministries, and exit Mercosur—all without needing opposition support. This could stabilize inflation within 18 months, but it also risks triggering a banking crisis if foreign reserves aren’t secured fast enough. The IMF has signaled it may offer technical support, but no new loans unless Argentina implements structural reforms first.
Who are the key players now that Massa has retired?
With Massa gone, the Peronist coalition is leaderless. Figures like Cristina Fernández de Kirchner remain influential but are politically isolated. Newer voices like Santiago Cafiero and Axel Kicillof are vying for control, but none have Massa’s national reach. Without a unifying figure, the opposition may fracture into regional factions, weakening its ability to challenge Milei’s reforms.
What’s the risk of Milei’s dollarization plan failing?
If Argentina doesn’t secure at least $20 billion in foreign reserves by mid-2026, dollarization could trigger bank runs and capital flight. The central bank currently holds just $4.3 billion. Milei’s team is negotiating with Saudi Arabia and the UAE for asset swaps, but no deal is confirmed. A failure could lead to hyperinflation returning by late 2026, sparking widespread unrest.
How does this affect Argentina’s role in Latin America?
Milei’s government has already paused BRICS accession and distanced itself from regional leftist blocs. With LLA controlling Congress, Argentina may align more closely with the U.S. and Chile, potentially creating a new conservative axis in South America. This could isolate countries like Brazil and Bolivia, reshaping trade and security alliances across the continent.
What’s next for the opposition in 2027?
The next presidential election is in 2027. For the opposition to rebound, they need a charismatic, reform-minded candidate who can offer a credible alternative to Milei’s shock therapy—without appearing nostalgic for past failures. Right now, no one fits that mold. If they don’t find one soon, Milei’s party could dominate Argentine politics for a decade.
